How COVID-19 reshapes the EU budget battleground

As Chancellor Merkel and others put it, this is the most challenging moment for Europe (and probably the rest of the world) since WWII. As during WWII and its aftermath, this will also be a time when the patterns of international influence will be redefined by those that will cope the best with the challenges ahead of us, ie. the health crisis and its economic consequences.

Severe disruptions in the commercial routes in general and those of medical equipment and agri-food in particular, combined with the repatriation of expat workers already reveal both the strengths and the vulnerabilities of the social and economic basis of each of the Member States (as well as any country worldwide). Continue Reading

How ‘COVID-19’ changes the balance of power: Winners and losers of emergency politics

Trougnouf (Benoit Brummer) / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

The latest developments show that, despite the severe disruptions, the EU policy-making machinery is looking for new ways to cope with the emergency. However, stark divergences on how to deal with the economic fallout of the crisis were already laid bare over a tense Council summit last week. Continue Reading

Top analyses by VoteWatch – deep insights into the EU machinery

While political environments are often being described as ‘bubbles’ that are detached from the rest of society, they are far from being immune to the most dramatic international developments. After facing significant disruption due to the wave of terrorist attacks in 2015 – 2016, the EU political life is now sliding towards a standstill due to the ongoing Corona Virus pandemic. Continue Reading

EU Climate agenda: key MEP to watch

© European Union 2019 – Source : EP / ERIC VIDAL

This report is the second instance of our new series on individual MEPs: Getting to know the decision-makers. We launched this series last week when we looked at the track record of the rapporteur on the Just Transition Fund. In these reports, we look beyond mere statements and learn the actual directions in which the politicians work to influence EU legislation. Continue Reading

Just Transition Fund: key MEP to watch

© European Union 2017 – Source : EP / Eric VIDAL

This report is the first instance of our new series on individual MEPs: Getting to know the decision-makers. In these reports we look beyond mere statements and learn the actual directions in which the politicians work to influence EU decisions. Over the past 11 years since we launched VoteWatch Europe, we have witnessed many situations in which stakeholders and citizens know very little or are even led into thinking the opposite of who influences and how the EU decision-making. Continue Reading

EU budget battleground: here are the coalitions

The stakes can hardly be higher, as EU leaders are meeting today to kick off a negotiating marathon to decide on the next Multiannual Financial Framework of the EU. Finding an agreement will be more difficult than ever, as the increasing political fragmentation and polarization of political systems across the EU decrease the room for maneuver of the different national leaders.  Continue Reading

European Parliament: current and future dynamics

The imminent departure of British MEPs brings further changes to the balance of power in the European Parliament, only a few months after the EP landscape was redrawn by the elections held in May 2019. This generates further confusion at a time when stakeholders are already struggling to engage with an apparently more unpredictable cohort of policymakers. However, the EP’s (and EU’s) decisions are not as unpredictable as commonly thought. Continue Reading

Do you need tailored research or quality presentations/training for your groups? Hire the best!

VoteWatch Europe is the leading organisation that tracks and forecasts EU political developments, through a unique combination of big political data and expert insights.

Our services are requested by influential public and private organisations, universities, politicians and the media. 

Our work is built on two pillars:

1) we follow the dynamics in the EU institutions (majority building, winners and losers, cohesion of the groups) to identify the supporters, opponents and the kingmakers among the EU Parliamentarians on any given policy proposal or broader area;

2) we follow the socio-political trends across the continent (opinion polls, governments’ change) in order to forecast the changes in the balance of power in both the European Parliament and the Council,  and hence the agenda and the margin of maneuver of the European Commission, on any given policy proposal. Continue Reading

Post-Brexit EP: Our database with MEPs contacts, committee affiliations, etc. to be updated after Brexit

The British Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are leaving, other MEPs are coming. The European Parliament is ever more a microcosm of what happens across the continent, as reflected by the Brexit-driven departure of British MEPs and the latest arrival of the ‘frozen’ Catalan MEPs. Other 27 new MEPs are set to join the hemicycle right after the UK leaves.

Continue Reading

Brexit: the power of data predictions

As the United Kingdom’s withdrawal agreement was supported by an overwhelming 91% of European parliamentarians, the UK will formally leave the European Union as the clock strikes midnight on the 31st of January.

For the past 10 years, VoteWatch has kept the record of how the EU governments make decisions in Brussels. As we indicated on other occasions, an expert look at the data can help you understand the trends and forecast the political future. Continue Reading