The US Democratic Primaries: Where do the candidates stand on EU-US relations?

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at Desert Pines High School in Las Vegas, Nevada. – Gage Skidmore: https://flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/49540584737/

It is no news that the relationship between the EU and the US went through a rocky three years, following Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. Since then, top EU policymakers have hardly concealed their frustration with Trump’s muscular approach to international relations and trade. Continue Reading

EU budget battleground: here are the coalitions

The stakes can hardly be higher, as EU leaders are meeting today to kick off a negotiating marathon to decide on the next Multiannual Financial Framework of the EU. Finding an agreement will be more difficult than ever, as the increasing political fragmentation and polarization of political systems across the EU decrease the room for maneuver of the different national leaders.  Continue Reading

Italian & Spanish parties in EU decision-making: key positions and coalitions

During the past few years, Italian and Spanish politics have been in the global media limelight as their established political parties struggled to maintain legislative majorities with newer parties chipping away at their electorates. The increasingly volatile and fragmented Spanish electorate has been called to the ballot four times in five years, while Italian voters boosted the political extremes into the mainstream. Continue Reading

European Parliament: current and future dynamics

The imminent departure of British MEPs brings further changes to the balance of power in the European Parliament, only a few months after the EP landscape was redrawn by the elections held in May 2019. This generates further confusion at a time when stakeholders are already struggling to engage with an apparently more unpredictable cohort of policymakers. However, the EP’s (and EU’s) decisions are not as unpredictable as commonly thought. Continue Reading

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VoteWatch Europe is the leading organisation that tracks and forecasts EU political developments, through a unique combination of big political data and expert insights.

Our services are requested by influential public and private organisations, universities, politicians and the media. 

Our work is built on two pillars:

1) we follow the dynamics in the EU institutions (majority building, winners and losers, cohesion of the groups) to identify the supporters, opponents and the kingmakers among the EU Parliamentarians on any given policy proposal or broader area;

2) we follow the socio-political trends across the continent (opinion polls, governments’ change) in order to forecast the changes in the balance of power in both the European Parliament and the Council,  and hence the agenda and the margin of maneuver of the European Commission, on any given policy proposal. Continue Reading

Brexit: the power of data predictions

As the United Kingdom’s withdrawal agreement was supported by an overwhelming 91% of European parliamentarians, the UK will formally leave the European Union as the clock strikes midnight on the 31st of January.

For the past 10 years, VoteWatch has kept the record of how the EU governments make decisions in Brussels. As we indicated on other occasions, an expert look at the data can help you understand the trends and forecast the political future. Continue Reading

Post-Brexit EP: Our database with MEPs contacts, committee affiliations, etc. to be updated after Brexit

The British Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are leaving, other MEPs are coming. The European Parliament is ever more a microcosm of what happens across the continent, as reflected by the Brexit-driven departure of British MEPs and the latest arrival of the ‘frozen’ Catalan MEPs. Other 27 new MEPs are set to join the hemicycle right after the UK leaves.

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New Power Ranking monitoring service: Who will lead the EU into the new decade?

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EU_flag_in_Italy.jpg

How powerful are political parties these days? Who are the most powerful players? How is influence shared among factions and sub-factions across the European continent and how will this play out in the next decade? The pace of political changes has significantly accelerated in recent years, creating confusion and unpredictability among stakeholders and citizens. Continue Reading

Winners and losers in the EP decision-making: climate, ETS, EU budget, development aid, Chile and sexual education

Plenary Session – © European Union 2019 – Source : EP

During the last plenary session, MEPs gave the green light to the new von der Leyen’s Commission, as the eventful 2019 year comes close to an end. After a prolonged period of EU transition limbo, in 2020 the focus will shift back to the day-to-day legislative battles. Who are the future winners and losers of EU politics going to be? Continue Reading

Von der Leyen gets the green light, but the biggest challenges are yet to come

© European Union 2019 – Source : EP

Today, a majority of MEPs decided to give the green-light to the new von der Leyen Commission. About 65% of MEPs backed the new College of Commissioners, whereas only 22% of Parliamentarians voted against von der Leyen. This means that, after a difficult process, the new legislative cycle can finally start. However, if you think von der Leyen’s life will be any easier after clearing this major hurdle, you might want to reconsider: the biggest challenges are yet to come, as the latest trends show that coalition building on EU policy initiatives is going to be more difficult than ever. Continue Reading